The 2026 FIFA World Cup in Mexico is set to be a spectacle, but the shadow of cartel violence looms large. As the world's most-watched sporting event prepares to descend upon Mexico, the question remains: Will the country's drug cartels disrupt the festivities? With nearly 1 million fans set to flock to Mexico, FIFA has vowed for a seamless tournament. But the recent violent clashes sparked by the death of a drug lord serve as a stark reminder of the powerful cartels that have long caused chaos in the country. The Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) responded with a destructive campaign of violence, setting fire to cargo trucks and buses to create roadblocks, and killing 30 government agents and a similar number of cartel members over two days. The CJNG's leader, Nemesio "El Mencho" Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, was killed by Mexican security forces in February, leading to this rampage. Now, Guadalajara, a key Mexican location due to host the tournament, is still reeling from the aftermath. A mass grave containing more than 250 bags of human remains was discovered just 13 kilometers from the host stadium in early 2025. The CJNG's internal disputes and the influx of revenue from the tournament could stoke in-fighting and a resumption of violent activities post-World Cup. The cartels are deeply embedded into local economies, so an escalation before or during the event could damage the amount of cash they take in. Restaurant, hotels, parking lots, merchandise, and fake merchandise sales are all potential targets for cartel violence. However, experts say that the cartels may not have as great an impact on the World Cup as feared, if only out of their own self-interest. In fact, the cartels themselves appear to be slightly scaling down their violent activities ahead of the World Cup, as they look to exploit the boost to the local economy. In the first five months of 2026, incidents of organized crime violence in Guadalajara dropped 30% from the previous five months. Monterrey saw a 13% fall in the same period. The expanded coordination between federal and local agencies in Mexico's Plan Kukulkan could even benefit the country's fight against organized crime after the World Cup comes to an end. But the risk always remains given the fierce competition for tourist dollars. The World Cup may provide a temporary reprieve, but the cartels' violent activities could resume after the tournament, as the international community averts its gaze from Mexico and the influx of visitors departs. The striking teachers' threat to disrupt the tournament adds another layer of complexity. Their demands for salary increases and a reversal of pension reforms could pose a practical problem for authorities in the coming weeks. The CNTE union behind the strike has undermined the entire Mexican educational system and threatened to close off routes that would allow fans to go to the games. The World Cup may offer a glimmer of hope for Mexico, but the country's security challenges persist. As the tournament unfolds, the world will be watching, hoping for a safe and successful event. But the specter of cartel violence and internal disputes within the CJNG could cast a long shadow over the festivities, reminding us that the fight against organized crime is far from over.
