Japan's ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), has secured a majority in a snap election, exit polls indicate. The LDP, which dominated Japanese politics for most of the last century but faced a decline in support in recent years, is on track for a landslide victory. The party's fortunes have been boosted by the popularity of Sanae Takaichi, who became the first female prime minister of Japan last year. Her rise to power coincides with a fracturing of the once-staid Japanese political spectrum, with the LDP losing votes to both its left and right wings due to a series of scandals. Despite lacking a majority in either house of the Diet, Takaichi seemed destined to be a short-lived premier, with Japan cycling through four leaders since 2020. However, her personal approval ratings have skyrocketed, as voters are drawn to her brash charisma and story of rising through a patriarchal organization to break the country's final glass ceiling. Tobias Harris, founder of Japan Foresight, notes that every generation of Japanese women can relate to her struggles, and her middle-class background makes her endearing. The LDP is projected to easily secure a majority on its own and, with its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, could control over 310 seats in the lower house of the Diet, giving them a two-thirds majority. This raises questions about the opposition's inability to effectively challenge the LDP, which has governed Japan almost continuously since the end of World War II. The past six months have seen missed opportunities for the opposition. After Takaichi's election as LDP leader, her party's coalition ally, Komeito, withdrew support due to her perceived conservatism, leaving her without the votes to be confirmed as premier. However, Takaichi demonstrated political deftness, and the Japan Innovation Party agreed to back the LDP after tense negotiations. With her approval ratings boosted by strong performances at foreign summits, Takaichi called a snap election, which the opposition attempted to counter with a new alliance. However, the Centrist Reform Alliance failed to win over enough parties, leaving them competing against the LDP and other candidates. Ken Jimbo, a politics professor, attributes this to the opposition's failure to consolidate a unified ideological stance against the LDP. The LDP is expected to become more conservative, shedding its moderate influence and marginalizing centrists within the party. Takaichi's influence will likely shape the party for the foreseeable future, with a reliable foundation on the back benches and a more conservative stance favoring conservative candidates. In the short term, a strong majority in the Diet will empower Takaichi to pursue her campaign priorities, including cutting sales tax, increasing defense spending, and boosting investment in high-tech. However, her willingness to borrow has rattled bond markets, and her comments about Taiwan have strained relations with China. Takaichi will also face an uncertain geopolitical environment, including a hostile China and an unpredictable U.S. president, Donald Trump, who endorsed her ahead of the election.
