The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is wreaking havoc on the travel industry, particularly in Asia, where travelers can expect higher fares and flight disruptions as the war chokes the supply of jet fuel. The region is facing a unique challenge due to its heavy reliance on Middle Eastern crude oil and the specialized storage requirements of jet fuel. Unlike Europe, which has a more diverse supply chain, Asia's vulnerability is exacerbated by the abrupt supply losses, such as China's jet fuel export ban, that the region has experienced.
The impact is already being felt, with airlines cutting flights and raising surcharges. The price of jet fuel has doubled since the war began, and the situation is only expected to worsen. Analysts predict that the crisis will lead to a virtual halt in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime chokepoint for global fuel shipments. This will have a significant impact on air connectivity, with fewer flights and poorer reliability.
The most vulnerable countries in Asia are those that lack refining capacity, such as Indonesia, Vietnam, and Bangladesh. These countries are turning to the United States for jet fuel supplies, but currency weakness compared to the US dollar is putting them at a disadvantage. The situation is further complicated by the fact that some countries, like Vietnam and the Philippines, have already canceled flights due to the jet fuel shortage.
To navigate this crisis, analysts suggest that governments in Asia should establish a coordinated regional fuel reserve sharing framework. Travelers, meanwhile, are advised to book refundable fares with travel insurance, budget for fuel surcharges of US$200 to US$400 on long-haul round trips, and consider purchasing tickets for travel in late 2026 and early 2027 in advance. The era of cheap airfares is coming to an end, and the travel industry is bracing for a challenging summer travel season.
